Better Offline

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The Hater's Guide To Bonds With Rob Wigglesworth

14 okt · 42 min

In this week's Better Offline, Ed Zitron is joined by Robin Wigglesworth of the Financial Times to explain how both corporate and sovereign bonds work, why you should care, and what you need to know about the tech industry’s growing debt.

Rob Wigglesworth: A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World
https://www.amazon.com/Fabulous-Debt-Story-Bonds-Modern/dp/0593719182
https://x.com/RobinWigg
https://www.ft.com/robin-wigglesworth

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Newsletter: Credit Crunch: https://www.wheresyoured.at/credit-crunch/https://www.afr.com/technology/firmus-blockbuster-ipo-finds-itself-in-a-36-hour-spiral-of-doom-20261008-p613ul
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/hedge-fund-uncovers-30-red-flags-against-firmus-20261008-p613t7

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Monologue: Australia's Dodgiest AI IPO Is A Pale Horse

09 okt · 10 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron talks about the brittle state of Australian AI data center company Firmus’ IPO, its dodgy underlying numbers, and how the Australian media has set an example of how you should actually cover an AI company.

NOTE: This IPO was officially postponed shortly before going to press. The content still rocks.

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"Cycular" Financing w/ GamersNexus

07 okt · 50 min

In this episode, Ed Zitron is joined by Steve Burke of GamersNexus to talk about NVIDIA’s “cycular” financing, Trump’s “superintelligence” accord, the growing bubble in the gaming industry, and the Steam Frame VR headset.

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Monologue: Anthropic's $413bn Burden

02 okt · 7 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron talks about Anthropic’s $413 billion in non-cancellable compute commitments, and how its future depends on the impossible task of borrowing $50 billion to $100 billion a year from a bond market that’s already strained by endless AI data center debt.

Link to details on contracts: https://bsky.app/profile/edzitron.com/post/3mwoc3p2b2s2m
Newsletter: Dead Money: https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

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Monologue: Anthropic Lost $8bn In 2025, Was A Worse Business Than OpenAI

30 sep · 8 min

In this week's Better Offline, Ed Zitron walks through Anthropic’s 2025 financials, covering how it spent $2.75 to make a dollar, and how it was, at least last year, a worse business than OpenAI.

Dead Money: https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/
Anthropic story from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/anthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-sweeping-ai-vision-surging-costs-2026-09-28/

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Monologue: The AI Data Center Overbuild

25 sep · 11 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron talks about how $200bn to $300bn of AI GPUs are sitting in warehouses, how hyperscalers like Microsoft are overstating their AI capacity, and why the AI data center overbuild is magntiudes worse than the Dot Com era fiber buildout.

Where’re All The AI Chips? https://www.wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-the-ai-chips/
Dario quote: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2#:~:text=Basically%20I%E2%80%99m%20saying,that%20much%20compute

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The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul Kedrosky

23 sep · 55 min

In this week’s Better Offline, Ed Zitron is joined by economist Paul Kedrosky to talk about how AI is distorting the bond markets to the point that it’s changing the price on US Treasuries, how AI data center economics don’t make sense, and the troubling signs he’s hearing out of Anthropic.

https://paulkedrosky.com/
The Nick, Dick and Paul Show: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFbDiETo29GTIjg6Lk4imig

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Monologue: Shut The F*ck Up, Dario!

18 sep · 8 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron delivers a simple message: if Dario Amodei truly believes that Anthropic is building dangerous AI, he should stop any and all cybersecurity model training runs, halt his IPO, limit Claude to only the safest possible functions, or shut the fuck up.

Anthropic “80% gross margins” story https://www.ft.com/content/4564e6a5-69e9-40a6-bf0f-a888f2f4f002?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Overcharging story:
theinformation.com/newsletters/applied-ai/anthropic-customers-find-errant-charges-auditing-startup-says

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Stopping The AI Safety Cult ft. Adam Becker & Cal Newport

16 sep · 1 u 6 min

Ed Zitron is joined by computer science professor and writer Cal Newport and journalist and astrophysicist Adam Becker to get the word out that the narrative about existential risk from AI is driven by a religious cult of effective altruists and rationalists.

AI Is Already In Dangerous Hands newsletter: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands/

Adam
https://bsky.app/profile/adambecker.bsky.social
https://www.youtube.com/@DreamingAgainstTheMachine
https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/adam-becker/more-everything-forever/9781541619593/

Cal
Podcast & Videos: https://www.youtube.com/@CalNewportMedia/
Newsletter: https://calnewport.com

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Monologue: Jacob Coxon and the AI Safety Grift

11 sep · 16 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron runs through the nonsensical, pro-AI lab scare campaign driven by former researcher Jacob Coxon, how the media keeps falling for AI safety grifts, and how dangerous AI is already in the wrong hands - those of Anthropic and OpenAI.

WIRED interview with Coxon: https://archive.md/2026.09.10-091328/https://www.wired.com/story/anthropic-researcher-quits-jacob-coxon-ai-fears-humanity/
Thread on Hubinger and Coxon: https://bsky.app/profile/edzitron.com/post/3mv4suhyexc2g

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Managing The Situation

09 sep · 17 min

In this week’s Better Offline, Ed Zitron walks you through how society continues to manage rather than deal with crises, and how the AI bubble is yet another crisis resulting from a failure to deal with the complexity of the real world.

Last Week’s Newsletter: Hyperscale Normalization https://www.wheresyoured.at/hyperscale-normalization/
This week’s newsletter: Concentration Risk https://www.wheresyoured.at/concentration-risk/
Hypernormalization: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr7T07WfIhM

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Monologue: Concentration Risk

04 sep · 10 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron runs through how 80% of Anthropic and OpenAI’s enterprise revenues come from the top 1% of its customers, and how the entire AI bubble is a series of different concentration risks supported by venture capital and debt.

Newsletter: https://www.wheresyoured.at/hyperscale-normalization/
Ramp Data: https://www.reddit.com/r/BetterOffline/comments/1w5i9t4/ramp_80_of_openai_and_anthropics_enterprise/
Terrible Groundbreaker piece: https://www.groundbrkr.com/p/the-teaser-period-why-the-ai-boom - please note that many of the numbers in this piece are wrong and it’s written by Claude, but the overall thesis is useful.

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LLMs Will Never Make Art With Caleb Wilson and Arif Hasan

02 sep · 43 min

In this week’s Better Offline, Ed Zitron is joined by Arif Hasan of Wide Left and Caleb Wilson of Kill The Computer to talk about an academic paper on AI slop, and the many reasons why LLMS can never truly make art.

Why Slop Matters: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.06060

Arif Hasan
wideleft.football
x.com/ArifHasanNFL
arif.bsky.social

Caleb Wilson
https://bsky.app/profile/birdrespecter.bsky.social
https://bsky.app/profile/killthecomputer.com

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Monologue: Into The Jensenverse

28 aug · 9 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron runs through how the AI bubble has increasingly become Jensen Huang and NVIDIA feeding different companies money, and how NVIDIA’s revenue is mostly dependent on a small handful of customers being able to raise more and more debt every year.

EDITOR’s NOTE: I incorrectly say at the beginning of this that NVIDIA’s earnings were this week. They’re next week. Sorry!

Newsletter: The AI Hater’s Manifesto: https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-haters-manifesto/
Bloomberg Article: https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-500-billion-plan-envelops-164209178.html

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No, AI Is Not "Autonomously Hacking" with Cal Newport

26 aug · 1 u 5 min

In this week’s Better Offline, Ed talks with computer science professor and writer Cal Newport about what the recent AI hacking incidents actually mean, why we should stop referring to LLMs as AI, and what the post-bubble world looks like for LLMs.

Podcast & Videos: https://www.youtube.com/@CalNewportMedia/
Newsletter: https://calnewport.com
New Yorker archive: https://www.newyorker.com/contributors/cal-newport

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Monologue: AI Hits A Wall

21 aug · 10 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron runs through how Anthropic and OpenAI’s revenue growth is decelerating, and how OpenAI’s pause on model development and collapsing economics create the very real possibility it could collapse.

EDITOR’s NOTE: I incorrectly say at the beginning of this that NVIDIA’s earnings were this week. They’re next week. Sorry!

Newsletter: What If OpenAI Dies? https://www.wheresyoured.at/what-happens-if-openai-dies/

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The AI Clown Car W/ Gamersnexus

19 aug · 45 min

In this episode, Ed Zitron is joined by Steve Burke of GamersNexus to talk about the increasingly-delusional promises of the AI semiconductors industry, the rotten economics of LLMs, and how everything is becoming more frantic and desperate as we reach the end.

GamersNexus - There Are No Non-Clowns In The Clown Car: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F33Ohjufi9k
Support GamersNexus’ AI Surveillance Dystopia Series: https://store.gamersnexus.net/ai-dystopia
https://www.youtube.com/gamersnexus
https://gamersnexus.net/
https://bsky.app/profile/gamersnexus.bsky.social
https://x.com/GamersNexus

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AI Creativity Doesn't Exist With Chloe Radcliffe and Ed Ongweso Jr.

14 aug · 45 min

In this week's Better Offline, Ed is joined by comedian Chloe Radcliffe and critic Ed Ongweso Jr. to talk about AI’s attempts to interfere with the creative arts, horrible little robots, Mark Zuckerberg’s terrible AI essay, and why we can’t respect people writing using AI.

Chloe’s Show Cheat - https://publictheater.org/performances-jp/2026/c/chloe-radcliffe-cheat/ - August 19th and 20th in NYC!
Chloe Radcliffe: https://www.instagram.com/chloebadcliffe/?hl=en
Ed Ongweso Jr.: https://bsky.app/profile/bigblackjacobin.bsky.social
Ed Ongweso’s newsletter https://www.thetechbubble.info/

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Monologue: NVIDIA's No IT Loads Refused Cash Dump

12 aug · 11 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron runs through NVIDIA’s entirely-theoretical $500 billion AI infrastructure partnership with various asset managers, all to keep up with analyst expectations that it will make more than $1.6 trillion in the next three years.

Chloe’s Show Cheat - https://publictheater.org/performances-jp/2026/c/chloe-radcliffe-cheat/ - August 19th and 20th
News Story: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/nvidia-wall-street-asset-managers-500-billion-ai-push.html
Jensen Huang Tweet: https://x.com/JensenHuang/status/2086934705207959965?s=20
WSJ story on Anthropic IPO: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-tries-to-shore-up-investor-confidence-ahead-of-blockbuster-ipo-0ff736ad

Numbers: Consensus analyst estimates for revenue for the next three years are utterly fucking insane. NVIDIA made about $216 billion dollars in fiscal year 2026 - which ended on January 25th 2026, frustratingly - and analyst expectations have it at $393.7 billion dollars in Fiscal Year 2027, or a little under doubling its revenue year-over-year. In Fiscal Year 2028, expectations are at $565.7 billion dollars, and in Fiscal Year 2029, NVIDIA is expected to make $694 billion dollars. Over 90% of its revenues come from selling GPUs and other data center hardware.

I realize that’s a lot of numbers, so I’ll put it simply: NVIDIA is expected to sell over $1.6 trillion dollars’ worth of GPUs by January 2029, and the vast majority of its customers - including hyperscalers - are having to take out hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of debt to pay for it.

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Monologue: The Pale Horsemen Arrive

07 aug · 17 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron runs through how 70% of Microsoft, Google and Amazon’s AI revenues are from Anthropic and OpenAI, with 7% of Microsoft’s FY26 revenue coming from OpenAI alone, and how this is cast-iron proof that demand for AI doesn’t exist at a scale that warrants any of the trillion dollars in capex they’ve spent.

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The AI Demand Bubble with Ed Elson

05 aug · 54 min

In this week's Better Offline, Ed is joined by Prof G Markets’ Ed Elson to talk about the recent slew of tech earnings, how analyst estimates show that 70% of Microsoft, Google and Amazon’s AI revenues come from OpenAI and Anthropic, and the logical endpoint of his AI bubble thesis.

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Ed Elson’s Twitter: x.com/edels0n
Ed Elson’s Show: youtube.com/@ProfGMarkets

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Monologue: We Live Inside A Dream, But Who Is The Dreamer?

31 jul · 13 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron runs through how the media deliberately ignores reality to hide how Microsoft, Google and Amazon’s cloud growth is near-entirely driven by Anthropic and OpenAI, and how doing so threatens the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people.

To celebrate the one year anniversary of the premium newsletter, I’m offering a sale on one-year subscriptions. Between now and midnight July 26, you can get a permanent annual rate of just $60— a $10 discount on the usual price of $70 - for life - https://edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo-subscription/N9bqSLKBoS?ref=wheresyoured.at

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AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making w/ Nik Suresh

29 jul · 59 min

In this week’s Better Offline, Ed is joined by writer and software engineer Nik Suresh to talk about how AI mania is eviscerating global decision-making, weakening businesses and creating a culture of fear that demands workers lie about the benefits of AI to kiss up to Business Idiots.

Nik’s blog: https://ludic.mataroa.blog/blog/ai-mania-is-eviscerating-global-decision-making/
https://hermit-tech.com/
Brainwash An Executive Today! https://ludic.mataroa.blog/blog/brainwash-an-executive-today/

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Monologue: What The Hell Are The Hyperscalers Doing?

24 jul · 10 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron runs through how hyperscalers have wasted $1.1 trillion in capex on AI in a desperate attempt to sustain hypergrowth, and report on how without OpenAI’s claud spend, Microsoft Azure would’ve only grown 8% year-over-year in 2025.

The Subprime Data Center Crisis: https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-data-center-crisis/
Nik Suresh: AI Is Eviscerating Global Decisionmaking https://ludic.mataroa.blog/blog/ai-mania-is-eviscerating-global-decision-making/

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The Cult of the Ultra-Wealthy with Ed Elson

22 jul · 59 min

In this week's Better Offline, Ed is joined by Prof G Markets’ Ed Elson to talk about the broken state of the stock market, the collapse of financial regulation, SpaceX’s post-IPO horror show, and how our culture conflates wealth with intelligence.

To celebrate the one year anniversary of the premium newsletter, I’m offering a sale on one-year subscriptions. Between now and midnight July 26, you can get a permanent annual rate of just $60— a $10 discount on the usual price of $70 - for life - https://edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo-subscription/N9bqSLKBoS?ref=wheresyoured.at

Ed Elson’s Newsletter: simplyput.profgmedia.com
Ed Elson’s Twitter: x.com/edels0n
Ed Elson’s Show: youtube.com/@ProfGMarkets

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Monologue: OpenAI Could Kill SoftBank and Oracle

17 jul · 15 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron runs you through how OpenAI’s collapse could mortally wound SoftBank, throw the Paramount/Warner Brothers deal into chaos, kill Oracle, and destroy Larry Ellison’s empire.

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AI Made Everything Expensive (ft. GamersNexus)

15 jul · 1 u 4 min

In this episode, Ed Zitron is joined by Steve Burke of GamersNexus to talk about how demand for AI GPUs helped the RAM cartel make every single consumer electronic more expensive, and how bad it’ll be when things unwind.

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GamersNexus on the RAM cartel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVzeHTlWIDY

Support GamersNexus’ AI Surveillance Dystopia Series: https://store.gamersnexus.net/ai-dystopia

https://gamersnexus.net/

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Monologue: Blame AI For Making Everything More Expensive

10 jul · 8 min

In this week's Better Offline monologue, Ed Zitron runs you through how AI is inflating the price of memory across the board by diverting fab capacity to building high bandwidth memory for GPUs, and how this situation may end in disaster for everyone involved.

GamersNexus: The DRAM Cartel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVzeHTlWIDY

HBM to increase 90% Year over Year - https://x.com/pequityresearch/status/2075035164833382909?s=46

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